NATO cheat sheet: What to expect from this week’s summit

NATO leaders will gather in The Hague on Tuesday for what could be the alliance's most contentious summit in years.

There's much to discuss. The meeting comes as yet another war breaks out in the Middle East, this time with American heavy bombers joining Israel in striking targets in Iran. Elsewhere, bloody fighting continues in Russia's war on Ukraine, and Europe is still scrambling to figure out how it might defend the continent with less help from Washington.

While the meeting marks a return for US President Donald Trump to the frontline of a NATO leaders bash in his second term, it's also the first NATO summit for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Here’s your quick guide to what's important to watch:

1. What's really at stake

European NATO allies are aiming to convince their American counterparts – and the world – that they are serious about providing for their own security and ending an era of reliance on US military might.

The centrepiece of the summit is expected to be an agreement to raise defence spending across the alliance to at least 5% of GDP, which US President Donald Trump has been demanding for months.

But military spending is the perennial sore spot. The new 5% target is expected to be divided into 3.5% for “core military requirements” (read: traditional military spending), and 1.5% for broader defence-related outlays (from transport infrastructure to Ukraine aid).

The new target reflects European efforts to rebuild neglected armies as Russia continues its military buildup, and prepare for the likely departure of tens of thousands of US troops from the continent.

It is also doubtless a victory for Trump, who will claim personal credit for a deal. Whether it sticks is another matter. Trump himself suggested the target does not apply to the US, while Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has claimed an exemption for his country.

Expect commitments on military readiness and some minor pledges on military support for Ukraine at the summit as well.

2. Giving Trump what he wants

The overriding priority for the entire gathering will be keeping Trump happy.

The summit has been carefully engineered to avoid provocation – short, simple and centred around a single deliverable, the 5% deal, that Trump can brandish. Summits typically last three days, but in a concession to Trump's famously short attention span, this year's agenda for leaders has been largely compressed into a Tuesday dinner and a single working session on Wednesday.

The idea is to avoid an early Air Force One departure (as seen earlier this month at the G7) and limit the chances for a blow-up. Expect leaders to contort themselves to cater to the US president.

3. Who’s worth watching?

Trump, of course. Despite spending years prodding and insulting fellow NATO leaders, he will be fêted and flattered by them in The Hague. Whatever dislike Europeans might feel for Trump is overshadowed by their need for US military support, and their fears of a future in which US security guarantees come with fine print.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who at his first summit in office, will try to serve as Trump whisperer while keeping all the other allies on board as well. Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister, may also need to pick spots to stand up to Trump; some European NATO allies already privately complain that he’s too pliant towards Washington.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz heads to The Hague as a stark contrast to his predecessor, Olaf Scholz. Merz vowed to build Europe's strongest army last month – and at his first summit, he will have to demonstrate whether Berlin intends to deliver on its promises. Germany already began taking the lead on joint procurement under Scholz, particularly in air defence. Look for that to expand.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pushed off the main programme, also to avoid a direct confrontation with Trump. Ukraine hopes for some added pledges of military support, and possibly a bilateral meeting with Trump. But progress towards future NATO membership is unlikely beyond those made at previous summits. Instead, Kyiv will hope those aren't walked back.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Spain's politically embattled socialist prime minister, threw an early spanner in the works just days before the summit by rejecting the 5% target. He's since found a compromise that does not require him to budge on spending. Expect him to still be a leader for countries dissatisfied with the recent defence splurge across Europe.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico unexpectedly suggested that his country might be better off withdrawing from NATO and declaring neutrality. Despite the right-wing populist's musings, there's cross-party support in Bratislava for the 5% target.

4. Is NATO now stronger, or just louder?

That depends. On paper, the alliance has expanded and increased its spending: Finland and Sweden have joined, military budgets are up, and war plans have been dusted off.

But unity is brittle. The fear that Trump could walk away has injected urgency into Europe’s defence thinking, but Spain's rejection of spending targets and Fico's remarks illustrate that plenty of disagreements remain underneath the appearance of unity.

The Hague will be about projecting strength, but it may be the quiet insecurities that say the most.

(bts, jp)

CORRECTION: This story was corrected to state that it was Chancellor Friedrich Merz's first NATO leaders summit.