Ukraine faces ‘difficult’ summer as Western aid taps splutter

Military analysts warn Ukraine faces a 'difficult' summer on the battlefield, but Europe may be lacking new avenues to help close Kyiv's growing funding gap in the long-term.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three and a half years ago, the EU has channelled nearly €160 billion to Kyiv, according to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker. That includes a €50 billion pot of grants and loans disbursed through 2027, and a $50 billion G7 loan package backed by Russian central bank assets frozen in Belgium.

Moscow, meanwhile, has intensified air strikes on Ukrainian cities and ramped up efforts to seize territory. Its defence-industrial base continues to churn out materiel, buoyed by oil revenues and largely undeterred by Western sanctions.

This week, Ukraine is seeking new lifelines at a Recovery Conference in Rome. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hopes to clinch agreements on energy cooperation and attract fresh investment into Ukraine’s defence industry, according to people familiar with Kyiv’s planning.

But Western allies concede their other avenues for support are limited, particularly with US funding unlikely to return to Biden-era levels.

Europe is “assessing and working on different options” to support Ukraine beyond 2025, including a potential €100 billion pot in the next EU budget, Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said this week. But on that, there remains no clear route around the Hungarian veto.

A meeting of the coalition of 31 Western countries working towards security guarantees for Ukraine – to be chaired by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer on Thursday – is also unlikely to yield the meaningful progress that Kyiv needs to try and end the war.

The resulting picture, a senior NATO official said, is bleak.

“Ukraine continues to show a lot of innovative spirit,” they said. “But we are in for a stressful and difficult summer.”

Trump's flip-flopping

Central to the Rome conference is the question of Ukraine's reconstruction, which the World Bank estimates will cost $524 billion over the next decade, equivalent to nearly three times Ukraine’s projected GDP for 2024.

Among Kyiv's "innovative" attempts to secure financing is its leveraging of its mineral reserves, with western firms eyeing access in exchange for cash. But persuading investors to move into the Ukrainian market remains tough while the war shows no sign of ending.

“It still seems that the reconstruction community and those working on defence and security remain largely separate worlds, with little interaction despite the obvious interdependence,” said Lesia Ogryzko, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

The scale of the funding challenge underscores the importance of US support – but recent weeks have seen Donald Trump oscillating even more than usual.

Last week, the Pentagon abruptly halted a shipment of weapons to Ukraine – only for Trump to reverse the decision days later, reportedly considering sending additional Patriot missile systems.

Then, in an uncharacteristically direct rebuke of the Russian president, Trump said during a cabinet meeting this week that “we get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin,” and that while he could be “nice,” his promises were often meaningless.

But despite the US flip-flopping, public opinion across Europe remains resolutely in Ukraine’s corner.

According to recent ECFR polling, majorities or pluralities in eleven of twelve surveyed European countries oppose withdrawing military support, urging Ukraine to cede occupied territories, or lifting sanctions – even if the US were to do so.

Support for continued military assistance remains strongest in Denmark (78%), Portugal (74%), the United Kingdom (73%), and Estonia (68%).

(om)