How rare earths could make or break the EU’s defence ambitions

Rare earth minerals are tiny in volume but powerful enough to redraw the map of global security.

As rearmament and defence plans have multiplied in Brussels and the capitals, the scramble for these minerals has become critical to safeguarding Europe's defence industries and making them war-ready.

The resources have significantly impacted modern warfare technology and will continue to shape the future of military readiness across air, sea, and space. They are buried in everything from precision-guided munitions to night vision optics.

But China’s near-total monopoly on rare earth minerals production and Russia’s grip on other critical raw materials are likely to jeopardise Europe's ambitious defence plans.

China’s 'Trump' card

In April, after a long tug of war with the US over batteries and EVs and record-high tariffs imposed on Chinese products, China finally hit Washington and Brussels right where it hurts.

Beijing withheld export approvals for seven of the 17 rare earth elements (REEs) and magnets – samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium – used by NATO allies to operate fighter jets and missile systems.

Unlike other materials, REEs aren’t found in large, concentrated amounts and are often mixed with other elements, which makes them not only complex but costly to mine and refine.

As a consequence, whoever controls the processing has a significant upper hand in the market. This is the case of China, which has invested heavily in it since the 1980s, leaving the rest of the world still playing catch-up to this day.

By 2023, Beijing controlled roughly 60% of global rare earth production, more than 85% of processing capacity, and held around 30% of the world’s known reserves, solidifying its position as the main supplier in the critical minerals industry.

Materials and military applications

The European Commission’s latest critical raw materials list, published in 2023, flags 34 materials vital to the bloc’s economy, 12 of which NATO also considers essential for defence.

For the military, the criticality of materials rests on a spectrum, going from 'low-risk' to 'very high risk', depending on how essential they are to operations and how likely their supply is to be disrupted.

Graphite and aluminium, for example, are the most used across military applications, and are considered 'high-risk'.

Aside from raw materials, REEs also play a crucial role in the composition of military hardware.

According to the Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), an F-35 fighter jet contains more than 900 pounds of REEs, while a DDG-51 class destroyer uses approximately 5,200 pounds, and a Virginia-class submarine requires nearly 9,200 pounds.

The alternatives

While Brussels has poured money into domestic mineral production, it remains far from meeting the mineral resources it needs for its military and industry.

In the short term, only supply chain diversification – through partnerships with resource-rich regions like Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Ukraine – offers a way out.

Central Asia, for example, has numerous established mines already in operation. Ukraine, by contrast, has fewer active sites and an underdeveloped infrastructure while also facing the ongoing threat from Russia.

Still, deals with these countries may be as critical to European defence as tanks or jets.

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