Frontex: Irregular crossings to EU plummet in first half of 2025

Irregular crossings to the EU fell to 76,000 in the first half of 2025, as arrivals along the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Balkan routes collapsed, according to data released Thursday by the bloc’s border agency, Frontex.

The figure is a 20% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, when approximately 94,000 were recorded. It continues a downward trend that began after irregular migration peaked in 2023 at 380,000 crossings – the highest number since 2016.

The drop is mainly due to reduced activity along the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Balkan routes, which together saw fewer than 25,000 crossings, figures showed.

Frontex credits "stronger prevention" by departure countries, working "in close cooperation" with member states, for the decrease.

Helena Hahn, a migration policy analyst at the European Policy Centre, acknowledges that “the EU is seeing the impacts of its intensified cooperation with third countries... and its route-based actions.”  

But other dynamics are also at play. For example, “Iran has begun to deport Afghan refugees on a large scale,” and “border security measures have become stricter between Turkey and Iran,” both of which “determine which nationalities and routes are most frequent(ed).”

Ongoing uncertainty in Syria and shifting asylum policies within EU countries also contribute to the slower flow of migrants, she added. 

Meanwhile, irregular crossings have risen elsewhere, such as from the EU to the UK. On Thursday, Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer agreed to a so-called “one in, one out” deal, which would see the UK return some asylum seekers who have crossed the Channel in exchange for offering a legal route to others in France with ties to the UK.

Similarly, crossings on the Central Mediterranean route have reached more than 29,300 so far this year. Libya remains a major departure country: In June, over 5,000 migrants reached the Greek shores of Crete and Gavdos from Libya.

On Tuesday, EU migration commissioner Magnus Brunner, alongside officials from Italy, Malta, and Greece, was expelled from the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi. Local authorities accused the delegation of violating national sovereignty and bypassing proper diplomatic channels.

Hahn said that “the recent data is illustrative of the massive shifts we have seen in the EU’s immediate neighbourhood, driven by geopolitical upheaval and uncertainty.” 

She argued that “the trend towards abdicating from international norms on refugee protection also plays a role,” in the declining numbers, even though “protection needs... have by no means grown any less compared to previous years.” 

Frontex wrote that 760 people went missing in the first half of 2025 trying to cross the Mediterranean, citing figures from the International Organisation for Migration.

UPDATED: This article has been updated to include Hanh's comments and the latest developments on the UK–France migration deal.

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