E3 ‘euphoria’ and Weimar’s woes: Is Europe’s centre of gravity shifting from Warsaw to London?

With British Prime Minister Keir Starmer taking office, the old EU axis of France, Germany, and the UK is experiencing a revival, while questions are raised over the progress of the Franco-German-Polish Weimar Triangle. 

At the start of his term, the new British prime minister had promised a "reset" of relations with Europe after an inward-looking post-Brexit phase under the Conservatives.

Recent high-profile visits and treaty signings have prominently spotlighted this shift within the EU's historic axis of Britain, France, and Germany: The circle of the EU's formerly largest economies is quickly regaining momentum as a forum for European security matters.

This comes as progress on another trilateral dialogue format, often hailed as Europe's new centre of gravity on security, is being questioned: the Franco-German-Polish Weimar Triangle, which dates back to the early 1990s.

Officials contacted by Euractiv have denied a potential power shift from Warsaw to London. Yet, the recent developments highlight that the spot next to the Franco-German tandem in Europe's inner decision-making circle is likely to remain subject to shifts.

The rise of E3

That France and Germany would be keen to integrate Britain into Europe's foreign policy after Brexit had long been clear.

“[The UK] is simply the European country with the largest global diplomatic and military presence," Nils Schmid, the lead MP on foreign affairs of Germany's ruling Social Democrats (SPD/S&D), told Euractiv.

The new Franco-German-British dynamic that followed Starmer's arrival was most evident when American President Joe Biden visited Berlin on 18 October. The European leaders he met for a quadrilateral during his stay were Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The week after, Germany and Britain struck their first-ever bilateral security agreement, which completed a "triangle relationship" with France, noted Schmid. Paris is already linked to Germany via the Aachen Treaty and to Britain via the Lancaster House Treaties.

Officials increasingly refer to the format as E3, or European-3. The label initially designated a joint diplomatic initiative to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program in the early 2000s but has since evolved. Its mention in the first German-British treaty has solidified the label's extension to security matters.

What about Weimar?

Amid the excitement over Britain's comeback, the parallel absence of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk during Biden's visit raised eyebrows, however.

Just a year earlier, Tusk, a pro-European, had enjoyed his own 'Starmer moment' when he took over the government from the hard-right Law and Justice Party (PiS). His election revived the Weimar Triangle, which some hoped would reinforce the Franco-German tandem and represent the EU's new eastern focus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“But apart from a series of declarations of intent and smaller initiatives (...) not much concrete progress has been made,” Jacob Ross, an expert on Franco-German relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), told Euractiv.

The current fragility of the format had critics quickly seize on Tusk's absence. The Polish prime minister and his European relations have remained under intense scrutiny from the hard right. This pressure may have contributed to recent tensions over Germany's border controls and its prosecution of the suspected saboteurs of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, who allegedly passed through Poland.

Ross noted that the Triangle's stagnation may be grounded in Poland's focus on America in security matters, as it "learned from the war in Ukraine that it cannot rely on Germany and France." Others also blame Germany, pointing out Scholz’s lack of understanding of Polish concerns.

“The chancellor's hesitant attitude towards Ukrainian requests for the delivery of weapons systems and his deliberately nebulous rhetoric have contributed to unsettling Poland,” said Gunther Krichbaum, the lead MP on European affairs of the Christian Democrats (CDU/EPP), Germany's main opposition.

That one of Ukraine's closest allies was not included in discussions of Kyiv's 'victory plan' in Berlin was "a mistake (...) that must not be repeated," he told Euractiv.

Looking for a third wheel

Official sources contacted by Euractiv, however, deny that the choice of the E3 over the Weimar Triangle format in Berlin reflects competition, let alone signals a Franco-German turn from Warsaw to London.

One European diplomat hinted that any perceived momentum change was temporary. They compared the current dynamics in Europe to sitting at a table with friends when the sudden return of a long-absent friend triggers a wave of euphoria and redirects attention to the newcomer. It happened with Tusk, and now with Starmer, they added.

The most common explanation sources gave for Tusk's no-show was that the talks were also on the Middle East, the E3's staple, where Poland has kept a low profile. Others pointed to practicalities or struggled to see good reasons at all.

Above all, this indicates that the question of who will fill the post-Brexit European leadership vacuum next to France and Germany will likely remain unresolved. Aside from E3 and the Weimar Triangle, tried and failed configurations include a Franco-German-Italian 'EU-3' alliance.

Facing the possible election of an isolationist American President Donald Trump on 5 November, officials suggested that a more self-reliant Europe could move forward with a multi-coalition leadership approach.

The Weimar Triangle is particularly important for Russian and Ukrainian matters, while France and the UK matter in the Middle East, one diplomat source said.

“Different formats can be used for different problems,” a UK government source summarised.

[Edited by Martina Monti]