Negotiations on first British-German treaty on ice, future uncertain

A large-scale bilateral treaty between Germany and the UK will not be ratified as planned, and its completion is now uncertain, Euractiv has learned, leaving one of Keir Starmer’s foreign-policy priorities hanging in the balance.  

The UK Prime Minister and his German counterpart, Olaf Scholz, announced their intention to sign a comprehensive bilateral treaty, the first of its kind between the two countries, during Starmer’s visit to Berlin in August. 

Though negotiations quickly progressed, with a conclusion expected in January, the announcement of snap elections in Germany has left the effort in tatters.  

A German government source told Euractiv that “a ratification of the treaty during the current [German] term appears to have little prospect of success, given the early elections to the Bundestag.”  

Scholz had settled on holding elections in February this week after his infighting-prone coalition broke down. With Scholz tipped to lose power, as his Social Democratic Party (SPD) is polling far behind the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), it remains uncertain whether the treaty will see the light of the day. 

Prior to this, Nils Schmid, the SPD’s lead MP in foreign affairs, had told Euractiv that negotiations were to conclude in January, in line with official communication, to allow the German parliament to approve the treaty before its summer break.

However, due to the elections, the unfinished treaty would fall victim to the ‘discontinuity principle’, the government source said. This requires legislative proposals that have not been passed within the term to be scrapped and started anew, if they are to be resumed.  

In light of this, current negotiations have been all but halted, Euractiv understands. A new German government will have to decide whether it will pursue a treaty at all and what would be included.

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A treaty on 'the entire bandwidth of relations'

Scholz’s ally Schmid compared the significance of the document to the 2019 ‘Treaty of Aachen’, which lifted the Franco-German relationship to a new level, establishing a joint parliamentary assembly, amongst other things. 

It was supposed to institutionalise exchanges between the two governments and parliaments, with desirable formats including regular meetings between parliamentary committees, Schmid said. The two countries would also seek closer cultural interlinkages, he added. 

This tied in with the British side, which wanted the agreement to make a practical impact on the lives of ordinary people, but also reflect its focus on growth, a UK government source told Euractiv.  

Germany had previously signed its first-ever defence cooperation agreement with the UK under Starmer's government. 

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The German's called it an “expression of the new British orientation towards Europe.”

Before the election announcement, negotiations had been progressing “at an unheard-of speed”, the British source said, noting that bilateral treaty negotiations were normally “a matter of years” while this one was to be “wrapped up within months.”

Officials were then working on the treaty text, after which they were due to channel it into more substantive initiatives that derive from it and could be presented alongside the treaty.

Likely Scholz successors want to co-operate

The Christian Democrats’ lead MP in foreign affairs, Jürgen Hardt, offered some reassurance. German-British relations were “too important to be left to the government of the failed chancellor, Olaf Scholz,” he told Euractiv.  

Though he avoided committing explicitly to a new treaty, Hardt said a new government “will address this issue immediately and establish various forms of co-operation (...) [and] a firmer basis.” 

A German government source stated that the "continued interest... in intensifying bilateral cooperation" suggests there is strong support for signing the treaty in the next term.

Starmer is also still planning to negotiate a comprehensive treaty with the EU, as The Times reported previously. It could cover more substantive policies in areas that the German-British treaty could not include, as subjects such as post-Brexit trade, migration, and youth mobility fall under EU competence. Schmid estimated that any EU treaty would be more complex and take longer.

Friedrich Merz’s likely chancellorship heralds a more right-wing EU

If Friedrich Merz remains the frontrunner for Germany’s chancellery, the EU will get a decisively pro-European chancellor, insiders told Euractiv, but he is also likely to tip the balance further right.

[Edited by Rajnish Singh]