Climate change is making Europe’s forests more vulnerable, and less productive

This article is part of our special report Europe’s forests at a crossroads. Can economic growth and conservation coexist?.

Forests across Europe are becoming increasingly vulnerable and are losing productivity due to climate change. Experts now argue for tailored forest management strategies and new policies to mitigate the decline.

A recent study published by Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) examined the impacts of drought and heat on European forests from 2018 to 2022, comparing them to a reference period (2010-2014). Central Europe, the most impacted region, has experienced significant tree cover loss, crown thinning, and pest infestations, particularly bark beetles.

Coniferous and deciduous trees were both affected, with broadleaved species showing increased vulnerability.

The region’s forests are under severe stress, with economic losses in the forestry sector estimated in the billions of euros.

Adaptive mechanisms

Southern Europe, while historically adapted to drought, still faced significant tree cover loss and defoliation, particularly in Italy and Spain.

Wildfires, though not significantly more frequent during 2018-2022, remain a major threat, with the 2017 wildfires in Portugal being particularly devastating.

Adaptive mechanisms in Mediterranean vegetation, such as deep rooting systems, have helped mitigate some impacts.

Lesser shock

Meanwhile, Northern Europe showed emerging but less severe impacts, with significant tree cover loss in countries like Finland, Sweden, and Norway.

Conifers in this region exhibited greater resilience, likely due to site-adapted boreal species.

However, insect damage increased, particularly from bark beetles, indicating potential future vulnerabilities.

Alpine Europe on the other hand, demonstrated the least impact, possibly due to the protective effects of higher altitudes.

Mountain forests are also under pressure from climate change, with potential risks of soil erosion, landslides, and species shifts.

Forest productivity in decline

A separate study published in ScienceDirect, relates climate change to a decline in forest productivity in Western Europe, taking France as a study case.

While forest productivity increased during much of the 20th century due to warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons, recent figures suggest a turning point has been reached.

The decline has significant implications for forest adaptation to climate change and their role in mitigating carbon emissions.

Warmer and drier regions, such as those in the Mediterranean climate zone, experience more pronounced declines. In contrast, cooler and wetter regions, particularly in mountainous areas, show more stable productivity trends.

The study also explores the role of tree mortality and harvesting but finds that these factors have not significantly contributed to the observed declines in productivity, as growing stocks have continued to increase in most regions.

The decline in forest productivity raises concerns about the future role of forests in carbon sequestration and the sustainability of timber extraction practices.

New strategies needed

The authors of the study call for more comprehensive monitoring of forest ecosystems, including soil conditions, to better understand and address the challenges posed by climate change.

Overall, the results emphasise the urgent need for adaptive forest management strategies and policies to ensure the resilience and sustainability of forests in a changing climate.

The NHESS study also argues for tailored strategies to mitigate climate change impacts, underscoring the importance of regional differences in forest vulnerability.

Due to challenges in data collection and reporting, they call for harmonised data systems and enhanced monitoring to address future environmental challenges effectively.

The findings emphasise the urgent need for adaptive forest management, climate-resilient species selection, and integrated strategies to enhance forest resilience and mitigate the impacts of increasing heat and drought events across Europe.

Emissions declining

Data from the European Commission’s latest climate action progress report showcase a decline in EU greenhouse emissions by 8.3 per cent in 2023, compared to the previous year.

Key findings include a record 16.5 per cent drop in emissions from power and industrial installations, a 24 per cent decline in emissions from electricity production and heating due to increased renewable energy use, and a two per cent overall decrease in emissions from buildings, agriculture, transport, small industry, and waste.

Natural carbon absorption increased by 8.5 per cent, reversing the recent declining trend in the land use and forestry sector.

While the report highlights significant progress, demonstrating that economic growth and emissions reduction can go hand in hand, extreme weather events stress the need for continued action.

Last year was a testament to that. Over 370.000 hectares of forest were destroyed by wildfires in the first nine months of 2024, while the summer season was the hottest on record for Europe and globally.

[Edited By Brian Maguire | Euractiv's Advocacy Lab ]