A risky rapprochement, Europe’s China dilemma in a shifting global order

This article is part of our special report 50 Years of EU-China Relations: the future of the strategic partnership.

In fifty years of diplomatic relations, the European Union and China have gone through their fair share of trials and tribulations. While the relationship has never been an easy one to navigate, a new front is opening up with this jubilee, although not without a fresh set of challenges.

Viewing China as a strategic partner, an economic competitor and a systemic rival, the EU’s stance on China has shifted dramatically in recent years, owing to trade tensions, security concerns, geopolitical alignment and shifting transatlantic dynamics.

But the start of this year saw China take the first step towards what can be seen as rapprochement. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Europe to rethink its ties with China.

“China has always seen in Europe as an important pole in the multipolar world. The two sides are partners, not rivals. China is willing to work with the European side to deepen strategic communication and mutually beneficial cooperation.”

The invitation comes amid a dramatic repositioning of the United States under the leadership of President Donald Trump. Where his predecessor, Joe Biden, saw in Europe an ally against China, Trump’s more transactional approach leaves the Atlantic and the South Pacific’s waters a little muddied.

Ukraine peace talks

Wang’s proposal of a rethink in Sino-European relations included Europe’s participation in the peace negotiations in Ukraine, in stark contrast to the US announcing that Europe would not have a seat at the negotiating table.

In Munich, Wang personally met with the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, emphasising China’s support for Europe’s “important role” in Ukraine peace talks.

But while Beijing’s past (and present) support for Russia has not evaporated, this tentative rapprochement sounds better than being sidelined, and experts argue Europe must “take the gamble”, albeit cautiously.

Countering US unpredictability

In a comment published by Chatham House, William Matthews, Senior Research Fellow in the Asia-Pacific Programme, suggests Europe engages China to ensure Ukraine has a voice in negotiations.

This would not mean aligning with Beijing wholesale but rather leveraging its role as a counterweight to unpredictable US policies. China’s engagement could serve as a warning to Washington that ignoring European interests has consequences.

While China’s mediation efforts have been largely symbolic so far, its economic ties with Europe and global reputation could pressure Beijing into taking a more substantive role. For this to work, Europe must accept certain trade-offs, such as economic concessions to China in exchange for its involvement.

Matthews also argues that Europe must abandon outdated ideals of universal liberal order and instead adopt a pragmatic, strategic approach to global politics. By engaging China, Europe could counterbalance US unpredictability and Russian aggression, ensuring its interests are protected in an increasingly transactional world.

Mixed signals

Trump’s demands for increased European defence spending and his escalating trade war – with tariffs on both China and the EU – are pushing European nations to consider closer economic ties with China.

A Foreign Policy report notices a shift in Europe’s stance towards Beijing. Germany, heavily reliant on trade with China, is showing a more cautious attitude, opposing EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. The UK, under Keir Starmer’s leadership, has also increased diplomatic engagement.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, once a strong advocate for tough EU policies on China, has signalled a more balanced approach, suggesting room for constructive engagement and potential trade expansion.

“De-risking” at Europe’s own risk

But despite Trump stirring the pot and growing frustration in Europe, the appetite for a full pivot towards China seems small. Instead, European leaders are likely to maintain a cautious balancing act, softening their criticism of Beijing while preserving ties with Washington.

Experts at The Diplomat also see a “full-fledged detente” between the EU and China as unlikely, with significant obstacles remaining. The EU’s trade deficit with China concerns over dependence on Chinese technology, and disputes over industrial policies continue to strain relations.

Katja Bego, Senior Research Fellow in Chatham House’s International Security Programme, advises Europe to proceed with caution despite strategic openings in its relations with China.

While a pragmatic relationship might offer advantages – such as hedging between superpowers, gaining Beijing’s support on select issues, and filling gaps left by the US in areas like climate and AI governance – Europe must leverage its strengths wisely, avoiding the mistake of swapping one set of dependencies for another.

[Edited By Brian Maguire | Euractiv's Advocacy Lab ]